Metrics are the language of later-stage investing. At pre-seed and seed they are mostly noise: a few months of data, a handful of customers, a growth rate that can double or halve with one deal. If we waited for the numbers to be convincing, we would always arrive second.
Metrics arrive late
The best companies in our portfolio looked unremarkable on a spreadsheet when we first met them. What stood out was something the spreadsheet could not capture: a founder who understood a problem better than anyone else, and a reason why the solution was finally possible.
What we look at instead
- Insight. What does this team know that the market has not priced in yet?
- Speed. How fast do they learn? We compare what they told us in the first meeting with what they show us two weeks later.
- Pull. Are customers asking for the product before it is ready? Early pull beats polished traction.
- Team. Can these people recruit others who are better than them? Great early teams compound.
We would rather be early and right about people than late and right about numbers.
The cost of waiting
Waiting feels safe, but it has a price. Rounds get more expensive, allocations get smaller and the founder’s relationship goes to the investor who believed first. Conviction is not recklessness: it is doing the hard work of forming a view before everyone else does.
Our discipline
Investing early does not mean investing loosely. We write a short memo for every deal, we reference founders carefully, and we decide within four weeks. When the answer is no, we say so quickly — founders deserve that respect.
